Services-Prepackaged Software · SIC 7372

nCino, Inc.

NCNO

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Latest revenue

$152.2M

as of 2025-10-31

Latest net income

$-3.2M

as of 2025-10-31

Net margin

-2.1%

as of 2025-10-31

Community sentiment

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NCNO vs S&P 500 · rebased to 100

-27.0% / yr 37.1 pts / yr vs S&P 500(S&P 500 +10.1% / yr) 81.2% total
Compare:
Early cycleMid cycleLate cycleRecession

Background shading marks the US business-cycle phase at each point in time — early, mid and late expansion, then recession— so you can see which economic backdrop each move happened in. Recessions are NBER-official; expansion sub-phases are ActaClear's editorial dating.

Live market

delayed ≤15 min
$15.32
3.93%
Market cap
$1.68B
Enterprise value
$1.80B
P/E (trailing)
324.0×
Forward P/E
P/B
1.59×
Dividend yield
0.0%
52-wk high
$33.92
52-wk low
$13.80
Beta
Shares out
109.6M

What this company does

AI

Item 1. Business Overview As employees at financial institutions (“FIs”) do their daily work and serve their clients, they often face inefficiencies from disparate systems, broken workflows, manual processes, and the inability to utilize their data effectively. This negatively impacts risk management, decision making, and the experiences of bankers and their clients. FIs need a unified platform that helps them reengineer every experience, from managing complex credit portfolios to streamlining account onboarding and loan origination. nCino helps FIs of all sizes optimize their operations by embedding banking intelligence directly into the tools FI employees already use. nCino's data…

AI summary unavailable — showing raw filing excerpt

Generated from NCNO's filing dated 2026-03-31

Key risks

AI

Item 1A. Risk Factors You should consider and read carefully all of the risks and uncertainties described below, as well as other information included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, including the section titled “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and our consolidated financial statements and related notes before making an investment decision with respect to our common stock. The risks described below are not the only ones we face. The occurrence of any of the following risks or additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently believe to be immaterial could materially and adversely affect our business,…

AI summary unavailable — showing raw filing excerpt

Generated from NCNO's filing dated 2026-03-31

6.8
of 10

ActaClear Score

Above avg
#64 of 228 in Services-Prepackaged Software
+0.1 · 10d
Profitability·25%
6.2
Growth·15%
8.2
Value·20%
6.5
Quality·20%
8.9
Momentum·20%
4.5

Computed from 5 years of SEC fundamentals + latest market data, ranked within Services-Prepackaged Software (228 peers). 10 = best in industry, 5 = median, 0 = worst. Refreshed Jun 15, 2026.

3.96
Price / FV

Fair value · DCF

Deeply overvalued
~75% downside at this growth
25.0% / yr
-5%30%
Terminal growthWACC 9.7% · 10y forecast
Market-implied growth at today's price: 46.1% / yrfor 10 years, holding WACC 9.7% and terminal 2.5%.
Current price
$15.32
DCF fair value
$3.87
FCF base (last FY)
$5.18M
Net debt
$-37.97M
Methodology + caveats (click to expand)

Method. 10-year forecast of free cash flow, discounted at the company's WACC, with a Gordon-growth terminal at year 10. FCF is proxied by last fiscal-year net income (proper FCF needs CFO − CapEx by year, which we don't store yet). Beta defaults to 1.0 when not reported.

Why DCF is fragile. Treat the output as a thinking aid, not a verdict. Honest weaknesses of any DCF:

  • Growth is the dominant assumption. No one can foresee 10 years of growth — small changes in the slider can double or halve fair value. The reverse-DCF readout above tells you what the market is implicitly assuming; ask yourself whether that's realistic before trusting either number.
  • Terminal value dominates. In most DCFs, 60-80% of the answer comes from the terminal-value calculation — i.e., everything AFTER year 10. A 0.5pp change in terminal growth, or in WACC, can swing fair value by 20-30%.
  • WACC is itself a guess. We use a textbook CAPM cost of equity (Rf 4.3%, MRP 5.5%, β from the quote) plus a 6% pretax cost of debt — none of these are the company's actual marginal financing cost.
  • No moat / disruption modelling. The model assumes the company keeps earning whatever it earns today, compounding cleanly. Competitive shifts, regulatory action, and technology disruption can invalidate the forecast overnight.
  • Net income ≠ free cash flow. For capex-heavy names (semis, telcos) net income overstates distributable cash. For low-capex names (software) it understates. Both reduce the precision of the FV figure.
  • Reflexivity. A high stock price often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy via better hiring, financing, and customer trust. DCF can't see this.

Take the DCF, the reverse-DCF implied growth, the historical multiples, and the community sentiment together. When they agree, conviction. When they disagree, the disagreement is the most informative thing on the page.