Economic cycle

The US economic cycle

Three decades of expansions and recessions, mapped into the four phases of the business cycle. See where we are today — then test how any stock or portfolio behaved through each phase.

Mid cyclecurrent cycle phase
low confidence · FRED, 2026-06-15

Peak growth, healthy profits, neutral-to-tightening policy. Historically the longest phase.

GDP growth
1.6%
Q ending 2026-01-01
Unemployment
4.3%
flat pp YoY
Inflation (YoY)
4.2%
as of 2026-05-01
Fed funds
3.6%
-0.7 pp YoY
10Y–2Y spread
0.4%
normal
Why mid cycle?
  • •GDP growing at 1.6% (annualized).
  • •Steady expansion — no late-cycle or recovery signals dominant.

Recession status is NBER-official. Early / mid / late is an editorial read of the yield curve, labour market, and Fed stance — not a forecast.

30-year phase map

19901995200020052010201520202025today
Early cycleMid cycleLate cycleRecession

Recession bands are NBER-official. Early / mid / late expansion sub-phases are ActaClear's editorial dating in the spirit of the four-phase business-cycle framework.

The four phases

Early cycle

Recovery off the trough — accommodative Fed, rebounding growth, credit reopening.

Mid cycle

Peak growth, healthy profits, neutral-to-tightening policy. Historically the longest phase.

Late cycle

Economy running hot — rising rates, flattening/inverting curve, margin pressure building.

Recession

NBER-dated contraction — falling output and employment.

Cycle by cycle

1990–1991 cycle

  1. 1990-07 → 1991-04Recession— Gulf War recession

1991–2001 cycle

  1. 1991-04 → 1994-01Early cycle— Early 1990s recovery
  2. 1994-01 → 1999-01Mid cycle— Mid 1990s expansion
  3. 1999-01 → 2001-03Late cycle— Dot-com late cycle
  4. 2001-03 → 2001-12Recession— Dot-com recession

2001–2009 cycle

  1. 2001-12 → 2004-01Early cycle— Post-dot-com recovery
  2. 2004-01 → 2006-07Mid cycle— Mid 2000s expansion
  3. 2006-07 → 2007-12Late cycle— Housing-peak late cycle
  4. 2007-12 → 2009-07Recession— Great Recession

2009–2020 cycle

  1. 2009-07 → 2012-01Early cycle— Post-GFC recovery
  2. 2012-01 → 2018-07Mid cycle— 2010s mid expansion
  3. 2018-07 → 2020-02Late cycle— Late 2010s (curve inverts)
  4. 2020-02 → 2020-05Recession— COVID-19 recession

2020–present cycle

  1. 2020-05 → 2022-01Early cycle— Post-COVID stimulus recovery
  2. 2022-01 → 2023-07Late cycle— Inflation shock / aggressive hiking
  3. 2023-07 → nowMid cycle— Soft-landing mid/late cycle

Backtest a stock or portfolio against the cycle

Enter any tickers. We run a 30-year equal-weight backtest, shade the recessions, and break the return down by economic phase — so you can see whether a portfolio earned its money mid-cycle and bled through downturns.

0 valid tickers

Defaults: 5-year lookback, no rebalance. Change either after the backtest renders. Tickers must exist in our database (US-listed, SEC-filing).

Educational, not investment advice. Past-phase performance is not predictive. See the full backtest tool for rebalancing and shorter lookbacks.