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Your watchlist, scored and in cycle context. See the full economy view →

Mid cyclecurrent cycle phase

low confidence · FRED, 2026-06-19

Peak growth, healthy profits, neutral-to-tightening policy. Historically the longest phase.

GDP growth

1.6%

Q ending 2026-01-01

Unemployment

4.3%

flat pp YoY

Inflation (YoY)

4.2%

as of 2026-05-01

Fed funds

3.6%

-0.7 pp YoY

10Y–2Y spread

0.3%

normal

Why mid cycle?

Recession status is NBER-official. Early / mid / late is an editorial read of the yield curve, labour market, and Fed stance — not a forecast.

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